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We revisit six questions for sustainability leaders navigating geopolitical disruption, AI, climate risk, and a rapidly changing business landscape.
2026 has been yet another year of unexpected changes. As someone remarked in a conversation earlier this year, we are now living in a world of “structural volatility,” and that seems very apt. 2026 has delivered its own distinctive package of economic turbulence, geopolitical conflict, war, political fragmentation, and technological transformations. Boardrooms and C-suites continue to grapple with unexpected, often unwelcome changes to the operating environment for business.
If this sounds familiar, that’s because the same dynamic has prevailed each year since 2020.
All this calls to mind the famous statement by British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan when asked the hardest thing about being Prime Minister: “events, dear boy, events.” We have certainly had our fill of “events” over the past several years.
These events have thrown cold water in what had been a bath of very comforting assumptions not that long ago: (1) regulation and capital were aligned in pushing for increased investment and ambition on all aspects of sustainable business; (2) standards and principles had been shifting in a slow but steady way toward convergence; (3) net-zero commitments oriented business and the world on a seemingly unstoppable shift to clean energy. What’s more, seeing CEO after CEO stand on a stage to make public commitments meant that sustainable business had arrived, and that its progress was inevitable.
Looking back, the idea that these trends were here to stay now looks premature. It would, however, be equally wrong to conclude that today’s turbulence is here to stay.
Instead, it is crucial for businesses and sustainable business leaders to stay focused on goals that have been correct all along while embracing new ways of achieving them, and to remain steadfast even though the road to progress is considerably windier than we once assumed.
As the year started, I posed Six Questions That Will Define Sustainable Business in 2026. In hindsight, the questions still seem like the right ones to pose, though the answers look a bit different. Here, then, is either an update or a second chance to get it right, depending on your point of view.
1. With turbulence and profound change continuing in 2026, how can sustainability be seen as part of the answer rather than a distraction?
Two of 2026’s main developments—the conflict in the Persian Gulf and heightened tensions over data centers, and AI more broadly, are powerful answers to this question.
The world has experienced yet another “oil shock,” having experienced several since 1973. How many times must we learn the same lesson? This really should be the last time, because as many have correctly pointed out, clean, local energy is less subject to war than the kind that has to get through the Strait of Hormuz. Spain’s experience this year, where electricity bills are lower in spite of the energy crisis, reveals the economic benefits of a shift to solar energy and is all the evidence anyone should need.
Tensions over data centers have been growing steadily in the U.S., and increasingly in Europe, Latin America, and elsewhere. If data center developers (and customers) fail to meaningfully engage with communities to address their very real concerns, companies will find it increasingly difficult to achieve their business objectives. Stakeholder engagement is a staple of sustainable business, and its utility for simultaneously driving enterprise value while ensuring responsible business practice is on full display here.
2. What new skills and perspectives will empower sustainability leaders, including CSOs, to regain momentum in the year ahead?
There is overwhelming evidence that sustainable business leaders are facing intense pressure to demonstrate the business value of their efforts. The pressure may serve as a convenient excuse for some to slow progress on sustainability issues, but at a time of economic uncertainty, failing to address these questions would be, in the spirit of the World Cup, an own goal. Indeed, our recently released State of Sustainable Business survey with GlobeScan reveals a split between sustainability teams and senior executives in traditional business functions. The research indicates that senior executives view sustainability through a narrower risk-management and compliance lens, whereas sustainability teams continue to view it as a driver of long-term strategy and innovation.
Sustainability teams can start to bridge this gap by starting with enterprise priorities rather than a list of ESG topics, identifying where sustainability is a critical enabler, dependency, or source of competitive advantage. As such, better financial analysis is necessary to sustain corporate commitments at a time when there is pressure on budgets, though it is also the case that not everything that is important delivers immediate, quantifiable financial returns. Sustainable business leaders should stand up for that point without apology.
Sustainability leaders also need to be savvier about geopolitics—as do all business leaders. Indeed, the Financial Times reported recently on the rise of business school programs prioritizing geopolitics and business. Decisions ranging from supply chain management to securing access to natural resources to navigating political risk are all far more salient than during the more benign period in which the modern sustainability movement emerged.
3. What is the new geography of sustainability leadership, and what are its implications?
It is now commonly acknowledged that China may be the world’s first electrostate and the U.S. (at least under its current administration) is aiming to be the world’s last petrostate, with Europe focused on sovereignty and competitiveness. China and India’s populations are starting to decline, and Africa’s is rising and poised to continue. The geography and geometry of sustainability are long past the era when Brussels, London, and New York called the shots.
What’s more, it is clear that the era of multilateral cooperation is, if not dead, then in hibernation. No longer can global companies depend on converging standards or global agreements to define their goals and activities. Companies must then define their level of ambition and square the circle between global goals and local needs and expectations: no small task.
4. Political winds may again shift in the U.S. What impact, if any, would that have on sustainable business in the U.S. and globally?
In the U.S., the smart money is betting on at least one house of Congress to shift to Democratic control this November. Even if that comes to pass and is coupled with a lame duck presidency leading to 2028, it would be premature to assume a 180-degree turn is inevitable. It seems clear that the current administration will remain hostile to many aspects of sustainability, and that divided government will prevent any clear leadership or sense of direction.
If anything were to provide greater clarity on the path forward, it is possible that it will come from alignment of political leaders on the left and right who share perspectives based on elements of populism. There are signs of this, for example, about the rise of AI and its impacts on jobs and the environment. Businesses would be wise to prepare for the possibility of “strange bedfellows” that upend the political environment, with unpredictable results and possible hostility to business.
5. How should companies define climate leadership at a time when overshoot appears likely, energy demands are growing, and the COP process is weakening?
The first half of 2026 has seen acceptance of the reality that we will overshoot the 1.5°C threshold the world had been aiming for to avoid dangerous climate change impacts. There has also been mounting evidence that a “super El Nino” is forming in the Pacific, and this could exacerbate extreme weather starting this winter. Troubling signs are also growing about the potential for the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which plays a fundamental role in moderating temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, affecting climate conditions in North America, Western Europe, and the Tropics. Scientists are increasingly concerned that this could weaken or collapse and usher in extreme—and ongoing—disruption that would upend the lives of hundreds of millions of people. As always, science doesn’t respect politics, even as politics too often disrespects science.
We are also seeing signs of change on the architecture of climate ambition and disclosure, with significant organizational changes at the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) and Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). It is premature to know how this will play out. Many businesses are reassessing how—and in some cases whether—they engage with SBTi and CDP. The more pressing question, though, is how companies will set new climate targets at a time when caution has crowded out ambition.
6. Will business rediscover its voice in advocating for a rules-based international order, and rule of law more broadly?
No.
While there are occasional exceptions, businesses are mainly in reaction mode, continuing to prioritize short-term commercial interests over these questions. This is highly regrettable. Those of us working to advance sustainable business have not yet managed to make the case persuasively that companies should dedicate their time and attention—and voice—to advocating for rule of law and global cooperation. Business has much to lose if these preconditions for success deteriorate further. Companies may have overcorrected for the widespread advocacy on various public matters earlier in this decade.
Yet again, 2026 has delivered surprise and disruption. The world continues to spin fast, with no discernible compass. There is a sense among some that sustainable business has become a luxury item unaffordable in these times. This way of thinking is a mistake—in fact, sustainability objectives provide direction, not distraction, and resilience in the face of complex risks.
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